Don’t fall for 2010 predictions!
In the category of “I’m not falling for that again,” I suggest we take 2010 off as a year of predictions.
In a year when:
- Linux on the desktop improved with the maturity of KDE 4, but that whole “Year of the Linux Desktop” fad was put to rest
- Vista got an upgrade called Win7, but users paid full price
- Netbook sales were up, but no one saw how Chrome OS would change Microsoft’s approach to Win8
- Smartphones got better, but consumers were raped by expanded telecom contracts and poor service
- Android had a good year, but Android showed Wall Street how open source had a better year
- Apple marketshare did not grow. Who could have known!
- Shareware prices for many applications doubled and tripled, shocking many a Windows user
no prediction was safe.
One reason we should not make predictions for 2010 is because of the propensity to overmarket and underdeliver most every product anymore. If a tech company is not “confident”; that is — when it’s not lying its ass off — then it can’t hook you into talking about its vaporware for another year. Cue all Windows 8 talk… now: Windows 8 will challenge Google and Apple; Windows 8 will be revolutionary; Windows 8 will drive new businesses; Windows 8 will make Microsoft uber-profitable again, you know the drill.
I could do the same for both Apple and to a lesser extent, Linux. But by now you’ve memorized the drill and know exactly what the press releases will say.
Some things are certain. Your tech life will get smaller, smarter, and more mobile. But it will not necessarily be cheaper. That’s merely another year of ordinary evolution. Instead, a more productive way to spend 2010 will be to inform yourself about tech policy and how ACTA-inspired governments believe that our future is not digital. Lawyers have tasted blood thanks to endless RIAA suits and see your internet access as a way to make money through greater restrictions on its use under the guise of copyright infringement.